Analysis

At very low sample counts the numbers are still swinging hard. After 25 tournaments Argentina sits at 28% while Spain is only at 8%. France has zero wins in the first 10.

The noise falls off with the square root of the number of simulations. By 10,000 runs the curves have already flattened.

At the full 100,000 the Monte Carlo error on a ~17% title probability is roughly ±0.12 percentage points — small next to the uncertainty coming from the model itself.